The Masterclass last Monday was a real eye opener. Not only because it was the first professional event I organised, but because the content was so mind-refreshing.
The Head of Scenario Planning at Shell was invited to the Shell Technology Centre Amsterdam (STCA). Scenario Planning is all about analysing trends in the environment, possible futures, which might happen and have a certain impact on companies, governments and individuals. The goal of Scenario Planning is to prepare for the possible futures which have either a high impact or a high likelihood of becoming reality in the near or far future.
There are several threats and goals Shell, such as decreasing C02 emissions and sustaining their operations. For example, if the whole population would consume as much energy per capita as the United States, we would need around 5 to 6 planets to accommodate their energy usage. However, we are setting great steps to increase energy efficiency and decrease energy usage. For instance, Germany is able to rely solely on clean energy such as solar, wind, hydro-electricity and other renewable energies on some good days.
The possible futures are divided into two categories at Shell: Mountains and Oceans. Within the Mountains category, new or competing economic and political interests are accommodated irregularly. Reform unleashes new economic productivity and increases aspirations for further reform. Basically, this is a rather unregulated world with few political constraints.
In the world of mountains, influence remains concentrated in the hands of the currently powerful. Political power is great, and clean energy is forced into the market.
These worlds have a significantly different use of energy consumption and therefore need completely different approaches when it comes to Scenario Planning
For more information about Scenario Planning at Shell, visit: www.shell.com/scenarios
Lorenz Kort – Public Relations